DoctorJessica Melbourne-Thomas

Project Total: $60,000; This PhD project is using inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to examine socioecological tipping points for marine systems in three case studies that differ in their climatic zones, ecosystem characteristics, and socioeconomic context, as well as management and governance frameworks (the Southern Ocean, South-east Australian kelp forests and Indo-pacific coral reefs). Funded by: CSIRO-Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation ($60,000); University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $586,622; The sharp decrease in catch rates in the Heard Island and Macdonald Island (HIMI) longline fishery in 2016 generated concerns among the fishing industry, management and scientists for the long-term economic viability and productivity of the Australian toothfish fisheries at HIMI. Understanding the relationships between environmental factors and the performance of the fishery is especially important as sea surface temperature, the incidence of surface heatwaves, and environmental variability in general is predicted to increase globally under the influence of climate change [8]. This project characterises environmental variability within the HIMI and Macquarie Island regions, quantifying its relationship to catch rates and other fishery indicators at a number of spatial and temporal scales, identifying the possible mechanisms underpinning responses and quantifying the likely frequency of future adverse environmental conditions at a range of temporal scales. The new knowledge generated by this project is expected to provide timely information and advice that will allow the toothfish industry and management agencies to understand the impact of environmental variability on the fishery, for the toothfish industry to plan for future events, and to aid management agencies in developing appropriate strategies for the fishery in the face of a changing climate. Funded by: Fisheries Research & Development Corporation - Grant ($586,622); University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $28,149; Many Antarctic animals, including penguins, seals and whales, are dependent upon krill for food. Krill swarms can be deep or shallow, dense of diffuse but how the forms are distributed in time and space is poorly known. By mapping the distribution of blue whales and krill we will determine whether krill predators target particular forms of krill and if such forms are common. We will also assess whether whales fertilise the ocean through their nutrient-rich faeces. These whale-krill relationships and the role of whales in maintaining the ecosystem health will inform the management of expanding Antarctic krill fisheries. Funded by: CSIRO-Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation - Grant-Marine National Facility; University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $58,974; This project is a consortium of international scientists preparing a Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO) to be published in 2020. This funding is to enable editing of the papers being produced for MEASO. Funded by: The Pew Charitable Trusts ($58,974); University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $1,572,544; Funded by: European Commission - Grant-Horizon 2020; University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $14,885; This study aims to use stable isotope analysis of an existing library of squid beaks from predator stomachs to resolve squid trophodynamics, and in particular to quantify within and cross-species trophic allometries to inform more robust representations of squid in Southern Ocean ecosystem models. Funded by: University of Tasmania - Grant-Research Enhancement (REGS); University of Tasmania ($14,885).

Project Total: $9,848; Fellowship to visit colleagues in France (Profs Duhamel and Lehodey) to collaborate on developing ecosystem models focused on mesopelagic fish and squid in the Southern Indian Ocean Funded by: Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research - Fellowship ($9,848); University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $522,250; The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly changing environments on earth. Australia seeks to sustain marine resources of high fisheries and conservation value that are dependent on the productive ecosystems of the Kerguelen Axis (including Australia's Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands south to the Antarctic continent). The Kerguelen Axis has never been surveyed as a single region to determine the critical relationships between environmental and biogeochemical drivers responsible for the transition between the northern copepod-fish dominated foodweb to the southern krill-based foodweb. This knowledge is essential for ecosystem-based management of fisheries, as well as conservation of whale populations and marine biodiversity. The results will be important for assessing likely responses to change in the ecosystem (from climate or fisheries) as well as change in the global oceans and carbon cycle, which are fundamental to the Earth's response to climate change Funded by: Department of Environment and Energy (Cwth) - Grant-Australian Antarctic Science; University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $104,656; Land-fast sea ice (fast ice) is a pre-eminent feature of the Antractic coastal zone, is a senstitive indicator and modulator of Antarctic marine ecosystems. This joint Australia - New Zealand multi-disciplinary project will improve understanding of, and measurement capability for, coupled physical-biological processes in Antarctic fast ice. By combining field experiments, the use of automated observatories, historical data collation, satellite observations and statisitical modelling, the project will provide new data on local-to-circum-Antarctic scales. A key output of the project will be a physically-informed model of the seasonal development and fate of Antarctic fast-ice associated algal biomass. Furthermore, analyses will enhance the understanding of sea ice in Antarctic climate processes and will be utilised to improve parameterisation and evalutation of sea ice physical models. Funded by: Department of Environment and Energy (Cwth) - Grant-Australian Antarctic Science; University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $161,325; Mesopelagic fish are the most abundant vertebrate in the biosphere, accounting for more biomass than any other group of fish. In the Southern Ocean, mesopelagic fish and squid play a key role transferring energy from zooplankton to higher predators, and several species of fish are or commercial importance. However, the sensitivity of mesopelagic fish and squid to the combined impacts of fishing and climate change is poorly understood. Model representations of these groups which would inform our understanding of their current status and potential future trends are currently lacking. This project will develop size-based (or size spectrum) models to fill this gap. Size based model provide a powerful means to understand how marine communities are organised and how they respond to fishing and climate change. This project will advance our understanding of the role of mesopelagic species in Southern Ocean ecosystems and inform the development of indicators for ecological change. Funded by: Department of Environment and Energy (Cwth) - Grant-Australian Antarctic Science ($161,325); University of Tasmania ($40,000).

Project Total: $79,500; With a focus on the Indian Sector, the overall objective of this project is to develop a quantitative framework for assessing change in Southern Ocean ecosystems (habitats, species and foodwebs), to undertake the first assessment using that framework and, arising from the experience of that assessment, design a cost-effective sustained observing program that will be able to detect long-term trends in these ecosystems in the future. Specifically, the project will 1. With the IMBER program Integrating Climate and Ecosystem Dynamics of the Southern Ocean (ICED), develop the framework for assessing change in Southern Ocean ecosystems to deliver products to stakeholders and the public at large; 2. Review and refine methodologies for quantitative assessments of the status (including spatial and temporal variability) and trends of marine food webs; 3. Using these methods and available data, including satellites, underway data from ships-of-opportunity, repeat transects and local at-sea and land-based studies, undertake a synthesis and assessment of the current status (including spatial and temporal variability) and trends of (i) sea ice and ocean habitats, (ii) key pelagic species, including large diatoms, Antarctic krill, commercial finfish, myctophid fish, marine mammals and birds, and (iii) the relative importance of different trophic pathways (e.g. through krill versus copepods) in the subantarctic and Antarctic food webs in the Indian Sector; 4. Develop methods for presenting results that allow these assessments to be easily understood by key stakeholders and the public at large; and 5. Based on the requirements identified in the framework and first assessment, design a cost-effective observing system for the region, as part of the Southern Ocean Observing System, to provide robust assessments of change in habitats, key species and food webs, based on a set of sustained observations of cost-effective essential variables, known as ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables. Funded by: Department of Environment and Energy (Cwth) - Grant-Australian Antarctic Science; University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $0; The overall objective of this project is to provide assessments, based on modelling, for past, present and future ecosystem states under scenarios of environmental change and fisheries for the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean. The specific objectives of this research are to: 1. Develop and test ecosystem models for pelagic and sea ice habitats - with an emphasis on the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean - by building on existing ecosystem models within the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC); 2. Evaluate a set of community-agreed scenarios for habitat change in the region under contrasting climate change scenarios; 3. Examine the potential consequences of habitat change and fishing activity for key commercial species, notably Antarctic krill, mackerel icefish, and both Antarctic and Patagonian toothfish, and key conservation species, notably humpback, minke and blue whales; 4. Evaluate the conditions under which tipping points for ecosystem dynamics might occur for Southern Ocean ecosystems; and 5. Conduct and evaluate a set of model hindcast experiments to inform and improve model representations of current ecosystem state and projections of future states. Funded by: Department of Environment and Energy (Cwth) - Grant-Australian Antarctic Science; University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $0; Funded by: Department of Environment and Energy (Cwth) - Grant-Australian Antarctic Science; University of Tasmania.

Project Total: $2,284; Funded by: National Science Foundation - Grant; University of Tasmania.